三人谈：南亚国家去美元化的取向

三人谈：南亚国家去美元化的取向

A Conversation between Three

People：

The Orientation of Dedollarization

in South Asian Countries

本期主持人 狄方耀  西藏民族大学南亚研究所教授

Host of this issue Di Fangyao, Professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies, Xizang University for Nationalities

安高乐 四川师范大学华西边疆研究所  副教授

An Gaole is Associate Professor at the Institute of West China Frontier Studies, Sichuan Normal University

孙红林  四川师范大学华西边疆研究所  客座研究员

Sun Honglin Guest Researcher, West China Frontier Research Institute, Sichuan Normal University

刘星君 西藏民族大学南亚研究所  讲师

Liu Xingjun Lecturer, Institute of South Asian Studies, Xizang University for Nationalities

主持人：近期，南亚地区国家的去美元化有所增加，这对于整个地区会有什么影响呢？请安高乐老师先谈谈。

Host: Recently, there has been an increase in de-dollarization of South Asian countries. How will this affect the region as a whole? Please talk to Mr. An Gaole first.

安高乐：谢谢主持人请我先讲。其实，这个问题不是近期才突然出现的，几年前美国开始加印美钞时，已经就有一些国家有去美元化的迹象了。美国超发美元，它本国却不会出现严重的通货膨胀，因为世界各国都一直认可美元是硬通货，所以美国把通货膨胀的风险平摊到其他国家头上。这样一来，世界各国都受到了不同程度的损失。

An Gaole: Thank you for asking me to go first. In fact, this problem is not a recent phenomenon. When the US started printing more dollars a few years ago, there were already signs of de-dollarization in some countries. The U.S. overprints dollars, but it doesn't have serious inflation at home, because the world has long accepted the dollar as a hard currency, so the U.S. spreads the risk of inflation on to other countries. As a result, countries around the world have suffered varying degrees of loss.

主持人：安老师已经把话说到点子上了。世界上启动去美元化的国家，都是受到美国超量发行美元损害的国家。今天，我们实际上是四个人对谈。孙教授有什么看法呢？

Host: Miss Ann has hit the nail on the head. The countries in the world that have started to de-dollarize are the ones that have been hurt by the excess issuance of dollars by the United States.Today, we're actually talking to four people.What does Professor Sun think?

孙红林：赞成安老师的说法。从理论上来说，美国超发的美元越多，其他国家受到的损失也就越多。于是，不少的国家开始去美元化，为的是减少损失。

Sun Honglin: I agree with Mr. An. In theory, the more dollars America overissues, the more the rest of the world suffers. As a result, many countries began to de-dollarize in order to reduce losses.

安高乐：我主持上一期的“二人谈”，巴基期坦和中国的两位学者就谈了巴基斯坦的去美元化，现在人们看到的是，印度其实开启了去美元化，孟加拉也是这样，因为中亚、东南亚的一些国家都在去美元化，可见这个趋势还是有道理的。

An Gaole:I hosted the 37th episode of the "Two People Talk", in which two scholars from Pakistan and China talked about the de-dollarization of Pakistan. Now what people see is that India is actually starting to de-dollarize, and so is Bangladesh, because some parts of Central Asia and Southeast Asia are de-dollarizing, so this trend makes sense.

刘星君：4月份，孟加拉国一名政府高级官员透露，他们和俄罗斯已商定，同意使用人民币来支付俄在孟建设的核电站项目贷款款项。这种情况可能会越来越多。

Liu Xingjun: In April, a senior Bangladeshi government official revealed that they had agreed with Russia to use RMB to pay for the loan for the Russian-built nuclear power plant project in Bangladesh.This is likely to happen more and more.

主持人：可以肯定，这种情况现在就越来越多。

Host: It's certainly happening more and more.

孙红林：在南亚，印度和马来西亚已同意用印度卢比进行贸易结算。在拉丁美洲，巴西与阿根廷宣布将就创建属于拉美地区的共同货币进行准备工作，并将邀请拉美地区其他国家加入，以促进区域贸易、降低对美元的依赖。

Sun Honglin: In South Asia, India and Malaysia have agreed to settle their trade in Indian rupee. In Latin America, Brazil and Argentina announced they were preparing to create a common currency for the region and would invite other Latin American countries to join in an effort to boost regional trade and reduce reliance on the dollar.

安高乐：大家都知道了，《印度教徒报》4月初就报道，印度和马来西亚已同意用印度卢比进行贸易结算。印度卢比是是南亚地区重要的货币之一，他们之间的贸易这样进行结算，可以避免以美元结算的汇率风险，也减少了外汇储备的压力。

An Gaole: As you all know, The Hindu reported in early April that India and Malaysia have agreed to settle their trade in Indian rupee. The Indian rupee is one of the most important currencies in South Asia, and the settlement of trade between them in this way can avoid the exchange rate risk of settlement in the US dollar and reduce the pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

刘星君：我看到，美国《国际银行家》杂志分析，全球约1/4的人口都受到美国金融制裁的直接影响，世界各地的“去美元化”势头或许不那么令人感到意外。

Liu Xingjun: According to an analysis by the International Banker, about a quarter of the world's population has been directly affected by the US financial sanctions. The trend of "de-dollarization" around the world may not be so surprising.

安高乐：确实不会感到意外。有的南亚国家，例如印度，现在的经济处在25年以来最紧迫的境地，如果再不去美元化，那就是雪上加霜了。

An Gaole:  No surprise, really. Some South Asian economies, such as India, are in their most pressing economic situation in 25 years, and it would be even worse if they did not de-dollarize.

刘星君：IMF报告显示，印度是所有新兴市场中债务率最高的国家。据印度央行最新数据，印度的外债加上各邦的公共债务总额已高达1.17万亿美元，约占外储的250%。这说明，印度经济过去的增长都是长期受美元堆积的结果。

Liu Xingjun: The IMF report shows that India has the highest debt ratio among all emerging markets. According to the latest data from the Bank of India, India's external debt, combined with the public debt of various states, has reached $1.17 trillion, accounting for approximately 250% of its foreign reserves. This indicates that the past growth of the Indian economy has been the result of long-term accumulation of the US dollar.

孙红林：确实，这个被披露的资料还表明，过去几年，印度卢比连续三年都是表现最差的亚洲货币。显然，印度经济由于此前过度依赖美元债务，导致在美联储超强加息缩表周期内陷入困境。

Sun Honglin: Indeed, this disclosure also shows that the Indian rupee has been the worst performing Asian currency for three consecutive years in the past three years. Obviously, the Indian economy has been in trouble during the Fed's super-rate hike and balance-sheet contraction cycle due to its over-reliance on dollar debt.

主持人：请大家注意，4月17日，美国财政部发布的国际资本流动报告（TIC）内容显示，外国在2月份对美国长期、短期证券和银行流水的净买入额为280亿美元。其中，外国私人资金净流出为374亿美元，外国官方资金净流入为655亿美元。

Host: Note that on April 17, the US Treasury's International Capital Flow Report (TIC) showed that net foreign purchases of US long-term and short-term securities and bank liquidity in February were $28 billion. This included a net outflow of $37.4 billion from private foreign funds and a net inflow of $65.5 billion from official foreign funds.

刘星君：主持人，我也注意到了——到2月份，中国持有美国国债8488亿美元，环比1月持仓减少106亿美元，连续7个月减持美债，总持仓连续7个月创2010年6月以来新低——2022年4月起，中国的持仓连续11个月低于1万亿美元。

Liu Xingjun: Host, I have also noticed that by February, China held US $848.8 billion in US Treasury bonds, a decrease of US $10.6 billion from January, the seventh consecutive month of reduction in US Treasury bonds, the seventh consecutive month of total holdings hit the lowest level since June 2010. Since April 2022, China's holdings have been below US $1 trillion for 11 consecutive months.

安高乐：这是对的！美元的贬值这两年很快，等于在薅别国经济的羊毛。

An Gaole: That's right! The rapid depreciation of the dollar in the past two years is equivalent to pulling the wool off other countries' economies.

孙红林：南亚，还有东南亚，也包括中亚的国家，去美元化的实际效果等于减少了风险。但是，会不会后期产生不利影响呢？

Sun Honglin: In South Asia, Southeast Asia and Central Asia, the actual effect of de-dollarization is to reduce risks. But will there be adverse effects later?

安高乐：首先控制自身风险是亚洲国家的优选，多个国家，包括印度这个自信心非常强的南亚大国，都选择去美元化，可想而知，超印美元的害处之大。

An Gaole: The first priority for Asian countries is to control their own risks. Many countries, including India, a very confident South Asian power, have chosen to de-dollarize. You can imagine the harm of the US overprinting dollars.

刘星君：同意安老师的说法。世界多极化、经济全球化深入发展，国与国之间的政治与经济关系密切交织，国际关系现实主义理论认为，追求利益最大化是国家行为的目标。

Liu Xingjun: I agree with Mr. An Gaole. With the deepening development of world multipolarity and economic globalization, political and economic relations between countries are closely intertwined. The realism theory of international relations believes that the pursuit of maximizing interests is the goal of state behavior.

安高乐：即使是长远地看，哪个大国也不可能长久地居于世界第一的地位，总有其他的大国出来成为超它的。印度的社会舆论对此的信心，十二分的强烈。

An Gaole: Even in the long run, No major country can stay at the top of the world for a long time. There will always be other big countries coming out to overtake them. Indian public opinion is overwhelmingly confident.

孙红林：哈哈哈......印度一直就是一个非常自信的国家，网络上有帖子说，印度网民批判太平洋那边大国的用词，让人以为印度是一个正统的主义国家。

Sun Honglin: Ha ha...... India has always been a very confident country. On the Internet, there are posts saying that Indian netizens criticize the Great powers across the Pacific language and make people think India is an orthodox socialist country.

主持人：印度人民和中国人民以及亚洲人民都是爱好和平的。我们曾经都被帝国主义欺负和掠夺。不能总是被掠夺。

Host: The people of India and the people of China and the people of Asia are peace-loving.We were all bullied and pillaged by imperialism.Can't always be robbed.

安高乐：狄方耀教授说得对！去美元化，从本质上看，就是对历史和现实中的经济掠夺进行反抗。

An Gaole: Professor Di Fangyao is right! Dedollarization, in essence, is a revolt against economic plunder in history and reality.

刘星君：赞同！历史地看，这将是一个比较长的时段，毕竟一个搞单边主义的国家，通过战争手段和金融手段巩固了经济霸权地位，其积累的经济基础还是十分厚实。

Liu Xingjun: I agree! Historically speaking, this will be a relatively long period of time. After all, a country engaged in unilateralism has consolidated its economic hegemony through war and financial means, and its accumulated economic foundation is still very solid.

孙红林：很复杂的国际形势变化很快，也许，多极化的货币世界比人们想象的时间来的要快。

Sun Honglin: The complicated international situation is changing very fast. Maybe the multi-polar currency world is coming faster than people think.

安高乐：我们希望这个世界和睦，亚洲结成命运共同体，好好地把经济建设搞好，把生态环境搞好，人民共商共建共享亚洲共同体的福祉，远离从大洋那边伸手来捣乱的那个国家。

An Gaole: We hope that the world will be harmonious and Asia will form a community with a shared future. We hope that economic development and ecological environment will be well maintained, and that people will discuss, build and share the benefits of the Asian community, far away from the country that will make trouble from the other side of the ocean.

孙红林：当然！这需要人们的智慧，需要彼此平等，信守规则和协议，在外贸和外经贸的活动，不去损人利己，更不要损人不利己！

Sun Honglin: Of course! This needs people's wisdom, need to be equal to each other, abide by the rules and agreements, in foreign trade and foreign trade activities, do not harm others to benefit themselves, let alone harm others not to benefit themselves!

刘星君：诚信是国际经济技术交流的第一原则，有的国家在遇到西方国家不守约之后，也对亚洲国家不守约，迟早是搬起石头砸自己的脚。亚洲国家去美元化，其实也是这种事物发展的逻辑。

Liu Xingjun: Good faith is the first principle of international economic and technological exchanges. Some countries will sooner or later shoot themselves in the foot if they fail to keep their promises with Asian countries after encountering Western countries.The de-dollarization of Asian countries is also the logic behind the development of such things.

安高乐：一个国家的货币信用危机，是多方面原因造成的，例如缺乏合理的经济结构、遭遇突发性灾害等，但最主要的是把别的国家当做是傻瓜，以自己的地利之便不履约，这是一国货币越来越糟的根本原因。

An Gaole: A country's currency credit reduction is caused by many reasons, such as the lack of a reasonable economic structure, sudden disasters, but the most important is to treat other countries as fools, and then the country will not perform its obligations, which is the fundamental reason for a country's currency worse and worse.

孙红林：是的，是的。南亚的国家都最好不这样做，亚洲的国家都最好不这样做。

Sun Honglin: Yes, yes. All countries in South Asia would be better off not doing this, all countries in Asia would be better off not doing this.

主持人：这期的学者对话就到这里，谢谢你们！

Host: That's all for this academic dialogue, thank you!